Monday, November 11, 2013

Demographics and Disaster

About 20 years ago, Pangasinan, Leyte, Cebu and Davao were the largest voting blocks in the country. Politicians running for national elective posts were always concerned with capturing the votes in these large voting populations.

Today, Cavite has come up from its former lower ranking, with Davao, Cebu and Pangasinan still remaining in the lead. In terms of population, Region VIII ranks lower than Region VII that in turn ranks lower than Region VI. However Leyte's population, counting Southern Leyte, is bigger than the biggest provinces in both Western (Region VI) and Central Visayas (Region VII).

The Philippines coastline is 36,289.098 kilometers. One of the longest in the world. If a third or more of that is the length of Visayas' coastline, the extent of devastation during a super typhoon like Haiyan or Yolanda will be great. Inland areas will hardly suffer from storm surges, but those living along the coastline will be hardest hit.

The population in coastal communities all over the country as of 2000 is 64,700,000. This translates to more than 50% of the total Philippine population of more than 90,000,000 at the time.

When the Philippine Coast Guard began recovery operations in Tacloban, together with all the other entities participating in search, rescue and recovery, they were appalled at the huge number of dead bodies floating in the sea off Tacloban's coasts and on the streets.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC) began with a body count of the deceased at below ten. By the morning of November 11, 2013, NDRRMC declared that the number of casualties was 255.

Around the evening Malacanang told media in a press conference that the figure has gone up to 1,700. By reckoning, the final figure cannot be less than 10,000. Spokesman Mr. Edwin Lacierda refuted the claim of 10,000 casualties.

With more or less 10,000 kilometers of coast line, Visayas will be receiving the brunt of the force of super typhoon Yolanda. Therefore, if there are approximately 18,000,000 residents in Regions VI, VII and VIII with just a tenth living along the coast, that would still be around 2,000,000 people all in all.

This explains why the Coast Guard and the other volunteer rescue groups were confronted by the challenge of recovering hundreds of bodies floating off the coastal areas. The number of dead that were claimed by the sea, will be compounded further by the dead that littered the streets of Tacloban City.

Yahoo and other quarter's estimate that there are 10,000 that are feared to be dead is correct.
Photo credit: Agence France Press; Reuters; Manila Bulletin

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Election Systems Modernization

Election Systems Modernization